Karting championship permutations

The good thing about a three race system drop score system is that unless someone wins both opening races it is guarenteed to go to the final race. This year we have four karters who can theoretically still win. Here is the table posted earlier in the week with an extra column for current points. I have also put in bold those who can actually still win.

finishing position
driver points 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >8
Jonathan Little 16 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Craig King 10 20 18 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Catherine Leopold 7 15 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 6
Helen Little 6 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6
Felicity Kensett 6 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 5
Patrick Hill 5 15 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 5
Beth Little 5 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
Trefor Little 4 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4

In a points tie break the championship position is decided as follows:
Points (points gained in best 2 events from results only)
Finishing positions (from best 2 events)
FL and Pole points (best 2 events)
Result of discounted event
Complete tie

Cathy although in 4th with seemingly enough points to win is out as she is a) not taking part and b) forced to drop a score so for example if she did turn up and won the race she would drop the two points she got for August (which would be her worst result) in favour of the 10 for the win.

Thus she would have 10 + 5= 15. I already have a guaranteed 16 points therefore she could not win.

Anyway… to the people who can win – there will be repetition here.
I am leading the championship by virtue of already having scored in two races. Whereever I finish I am guaranteed at least 16 points. If I win I drop 8 points and gain 10 and go to 18 points. If Craig came second we would each have 18 points (a win and a second). It would then come down to pole and fastest lap. Craig already has four added points for that. I have two. I would need to beat Craig in both of these to take it to the fourth part… which I would win.
If I come second and Craig comes third, he wins.
If Craig comes fourth or lower, I by virtue of my two second places beat him whereever I finish… BUT
If Helen or Flick win they beat me to the title.
The lowest I can finish is 3rd.

Craig is the only karter to have won a race which gives him a good footing. If he wins the race he wins the title. If he comes second and I win then it goes to the fastest lap and pole tie break (again he has the advantage here with 4pts to 2pts). If that is tied then Craig loses out due to me doing an extra event and getting points.
If Craig comes third then if Jonathan is second Craig wins unless Flick or Helen wins with pole and fastest lap in which case Craig would need to be second in one of the categories to win out, if he doesn’t then we have a complete tie for the title.
If Craig comes fourth then the best he can finish is second.
The worst he can finish is 6th (not going to happen)

Helen and Flick can only guarantee their winning if they take victory and Craig finishes lower than third. If Craig comes third then it comes down to fastest laps and poles, at this time Craig has the advantage in these stakes.
Lowest either can finish – very low

I hope this makes sense, if it doesn’t then well it doesn’t really matter anyway. I just find this stuff fun.